WASHINGTON -- There's apparently no free lunch for two New Jersey Republicans who may be vulnerable in next year's elections.
A new ad campaign by a nonprofit advocacy group could pressure the lawmakers, even as they are getting support for their re-elections from its affiliated super political action committee.
American Action Network, which supports efforts to cut taxes and overhaul the tax code, is running ads in 23 congressional districts, including those represented by Reps. Tom MacArthur, R-3rd Dist., and Leonard Lance, R-7th Dist.
The ads, part of a $2.5 million campaign, are designed to build support for tax legislation. But the two New Jersey lawmakers may not be able to vote for the bill if it includes President Donald Trump's proposal to eliminate the federal deduction for state and local taxes.
"That's one of the interesting things about outside organizations," said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington-based research group that tracks political spending. "They can have a pretty specific impact in key races but they may not be marching in lockstep with the candidates they're trying to support."
American Action Network, which does not disclose its donors, shares office space and staff with the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC, which is linked to House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis.
The leadership fund has opened offices in both MacArthur's and Lance's districts. They are two of the four New Jersey House Republicans on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's initial target list and the two have drawn top-tier challengers in 2018.
The AAN ads call "a little tax relief from Congress with a simpler, fairer tax code" and thank lawmakers for "fighting to cut taxes for working families." They are designed to build support for legislation to cut taxes and reduce loopholes.
"Hard-working families and small businesses know far too well the burden the current tax code places on them," AAN Executive Director Corry Bliss said. "Now is the time for lawmakers to work together and deliver much needed relief."
But the proposals floated so far by Trump and House Republicans would disproportionately harm New Jersey taxpayers by eliminating the federal state and local tax deduction.
More than 4 in 10 New Jersey taxpayers chose to itemize their deductions on their 2014 federal income tax returns, according to the Tax Foundation, a research group in Washington. That allowed them to take advantage of the break for state and local income and property taxes. Only Maryland and Connecticut had a greater percentage of taxpayers who itemized rather than took the standard deduction.
"There are going to be a lot of fingers in the wind as members of Congress try to understand the proposals being put forth and take a read of their constituencies," Krumholz said.
Where MacArthur and Lance finally come down on the tax package will depend on what's in the final version.
"The congressman has made clear the local and state tax deduction is one of the most important factors for him when considering a final bill and he's been fighting to keep the deduction in place for New Jerseyans," MacArthur spokeswoman Camille Gallo said.
Lance spokesman John Byers said the lawmaker "strongly supports tax reform that makes the code simpler and fairer and delivers much-needed tax relief for working families and small business owners, including protecting the local tax deduction."
One of only 23 House Republicans representing a district carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016, Lance was rated as just a slight favorite for re-election by the Cook Political Report, a Washington-based publication that tracks congressional races. MacArthur was rated as potentially vulnerable.
"Northeast, somewhat 'liberal' Republicans are truly an endangered species," said Matthew Hale, a political science professor at Seton Hall University. "The GOP has moved so far to the right that the few moderate liberal Republicans left are constantly having to defend policies that make no sense for constituents in places like New Jersey and Maine. This GOP tax package is another example of this."
Jonathan D. Salant may be reached at jsalant@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @JDSalant or on Facebook. Find NJ.com Politics on Facebook.