Stephen Bannon, the former White House chief strategist and current executive chairman at Breitbart News, has zeroed in on the Alabama Senate runoff with hopes of unseating Luther Strange and delivering a blow to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's power structure.
The Alabama Senate race could be an early proving ground for Bannon, who is looking to purge the Senate of politicians who do not fully support President Donald Trump's "America First" platform.
National media reports suggest that Trump's confidant is planning an aggressive effort to unseat McConnell-backed candidates in the Deep South and elsewhere, and replace them with insurgents who are loyal to Trump's nationalist agenda.
The New York Times even suggested that Bannon's efforts could lead to a rare split of America's two-party political structure.
"Bannon's group is leading the fight against the establishment," said Mobile-based political strategist Jonathan Gray. "This will have an impact nationally."
Bannon effect
But will Bannon's influence in the final two weeks of the campaign season impact Alabama voters? Some longtime Alabama political observers have doubts.
For one, they claim that Bannon does little to add to Moore's populist campaign that has an established following due to the former judge's past crusades on religious liberty and opposition to legalized same-sex marriage.
In addition, they note that Moore has led in almost all polling against Strange ahead of the Sept. 26 runoff.
"Recent polls, if accurate, show that Moore doesn't really need outsiders to come to his assistance," said William Stewart, professor emeritus of political sciences at the University of Alabama.
Said Quin Hillyer, a Mobile-based conservative writer: "Bannon is merely jumping on a bandwagon, adding nothing at all to Roy Moore's lead."
Where Bannon could play a role in the waning days of the Senate campaign, observers note, is with money. Strange, thanks to his allegiance with McConnell's Super PAC, has a sizable fundraising advantage over Moore.
Bannon has ties with several anti-establishment mega-donors, some who have already pledged support for insurgent candidates during the 2018 midterm elections.
"The biggest help Bannon could provide Moore is financial," said Brent Buchanan, a Montgomery-based Republican strategist. "That has yet to be seen."
Said Jess Brown, a retired political science professor at Athens State University: "Bannon can help Moore by raising a little money and by using social media to impact a sliver of the electorate, but there is no major impact unless Trump seems to waffle on his support for Strange."
Indeed, Trump's endorsement of Strange looms large ahead of Sept. 26. The president, through a Tweet, endorsed Strange days ahead of the Aug. 15 primary. Strange finished second to Moore, winning only five of 67 counties in Alabama.
Trump's endorsement of Strange has perplexed conservatives who saw the president and his populist agenda more aligned with Moore. Strange, by contrast, has the financial backing of McConnell's Senate Leadership Fund. Strange has raised more than $3 million since the campaign began, while Moore has generated less than $500,000.
Trump, who had been quiet since the primary, sent out a Tweet Saturday saying that he will be in Huntsville Saturday to campaign for Strange.
Jim McLaughlin, a political strategist and prominent Republican pollster, said that Trump's endorsement still matters even if Bannon is angling more aggressively behind-the-scenes.
"I've been asked by a couple of people why (Trump) is so strongly supportive of Luther," said McLaughlin. "They have a personal relationship. The president has spoken to Luther and he likes him and believes he is the person who can move his agenda forward. He realizes he's the closest thing to Jeff Sessions he has going down there."
McLaughlin added, "I know Steve and I like him, but the average person doesn't know who Steve Bannon is."
Bannon, though, could have had Trump's ear, Gray said. He said that Bannon's influence may have prompted the president's recent silence and a lack of White House involvement in the Alabama race until Trump's Tweet Saturday afternoon.
"There is no question the president has a lot of respect for Steve Bannon," he said. "Yes, I think Bannon is involved. I think he's more involved than we will know."
Trump loyalty
Bannon left the White House on Aug. 18 and immediately rejoined Brietbart. Since then, news reports have circulated that he's backing opposition efforts to incumbent Republican senators - all who have ties to McConnell -- such as Jeff Flake in Arizona, Dean Heller in Nevada, Bob Corker in Tennessee and Roger Wicker in Mississippi.
First, though, the attention shifts to Alabama. In a Politico piece this week, Bannon reportedly portrayed the Sept. 26 runoff as a defining battle between the conservative base and GOP establishment.
And the New York Times, in an article Monday, quoted political scientists and historians like Michael Beschloss as saying the country's 200-year-old two-party system could be splintered into three.
Timothy Hagle, associate professor of political sciences at the University of Iowa, said he doesn't anticipate a splintered Republican Party anytime soon.
"That would mainly end up hurting the Republicans, would probably last only a cycle or two before collapsing and voters would revert to their prior party," he said. "More likely, we might see some Republican candidates doing better to craft their messaging to be in line with new concerns. That could certainly be a bit more distant from the McConnell-establishment wing of the party."
A change in messaging, to some extent, is already claiming political careers. In Pennsylvania, Republican U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent announced he was retiring, in part over claims that the GOP's newest litmus test was Trump loyalty.
With Bannon and his support network, loyalty toward Trump's agenda takes center stage.
The "Great American Alliance," an organization connected to the Great American PAC - which raised about $30 million for Trump's election last year - is bankrolling the pro-Moore bus trip through Alabama. Former Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin is expected to participate.
The Great American Alliance's senior adviser is Andy Surabian, who served as Bannon's political adviser when the two were in the White House together. On the organization's website, the group claims to be the "most active independent ally" of the president determined to see that his "America First" agenda succeeds.
Bannon has also reportedly been reaching out to anti-establishment mega donors, such as New York billionaire Robert Mercer, tech magnate Peter Thiel and Home Depot co-founder Bernie Marcus. Mercer has already reportedly donated $300,000 to a super PAC charged with defeating Flake in Arizona next year. Flake has been an outspoken critic of the president.
Strange, however, is a vocal supporter of Trump's agenda and his campaign advertisements have been geared to show as much.
When asked to comment on Bannon's involvement in the Senate race, Strange campaign spokesman Cameron Foster said: "President Donald Trump supports Luther Strange."
But Gray, the political strategist in Mobile, said that Strange's allegiance to McConnell and reliance on the Super PAC money resonates with Alabama voters wary of establishment politicians.
He said McConnell, in the eyes of conservative voters, has become "just as disliked as John Boehner." Boehner, the former Speaker of the House, was viewed unfavorably by conservatives before he resigned in 2015.
A 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that a whopping 72 percent of GOP voters were displeased with how McConnell and Boehner were advancing the Republican agenda.
In a Public Policy Polling analysis last month, McConnell's approval among Trump voters was only 15 percent.
Alabama is a deep red state which, in November, ranked among those that backed Trump the most. More than 62 percent of voters on Nov. 8, 2016, supported Trump's candidacy over Clinton.
"Bannon's group is leading that fight right now against the establishment," said Gray. "Steve Bannon does not like Mitch McConnell's brand of Republican politics. Luther Strange might as well change his middle name to 'Mitch McConnell.'"
McConnell's unpopularity among Trump backers may not diminish his influence in the Senate, said Hagle, the University of Iowa professor.
"McConnell's ability to deal with the Senate's process is often underrated, especially by those who want more immediate results," he said. "That might not satisfy others outside the process, whether it's President Trump, Steve Bannon or others."
He added, "My guess is that any Bannon-backed candidates new to the Senate might get a quick lesson in how the Senate works and would realize that opposing McConnell isn't he way to go. Then again, if enough (insurgents) come in at the same time, maybe they could force McConnell out, but right I don't see that happening."