Leading Off
● FL-25, FL-27: On Thursday, former state Judge Mary Barzee Flores announced she was dropping out of the Democratic primary in the open 27th District to instead challenge entrenched Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart in the adjacent 25th District. Unlike much of the country, switching districts isn't that unusual in greater Miami, and Diaz-Balart even did it as a sitting House member when his brother, ex-Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, retired in 2010. Barzee Flores' decision means Democrats will finally have a prominent challenger to Diaz-Balart, and Team Blue has at last filled what was possibly their most glaring recruitment hole in House races nationally.
Campaign Action
Barzee Flores had been one of many well-funded Democrats seeking to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in the 27th, a historically Republican district that nevertheless looks like an easy pickup in the 2018 political climate, given that Hillary Clinton won it 59-39. However, after Donna Shalala, a former Clinton administration cabinet member and former University of Miami president, unexpectedly jumped into the primary, multiple big names dropped out of that race. National Democrats, including House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, had reportedly tried to get one of those non-Shalala Democrats to switch districts, but they had been unsuccessful before now.
While Barzee Flores is now almost certainly guaranteed to win the primary in the 25th District, that doesn't mean this move can solely be chalked up to self-interest. Thanks to GOP gerrymandering, the 25th backed Trump by 50-48, making it a much tougher target for Democrats. Furthermore, the presidential topline here can be misleading, since the Cuban-American voters who dominate in this region have had a much stronger tendency to oppose Trump than to vote Democratic down-ballot. Indeed, Obama lost the 25th by a wider 54-45 in 2012, and Diaz-Balart won by 62-38 in 2016 despite Trump's close margin.
Diaz-Balart also appears to have been taking the 2018 political environment seriously: He raised $303,000 in the first quarter and had $1.2 million in the bank as of April 1. While Barzee Flores raised a decent $203,000, she only had $399,000 on-hand. Nevertheless, this is the sort of light-red yet Democratic-trending district that Democrats will need to compete in to win a firm majority in the House this November.
Senate
● FL-Sen: A super PAC called "New Republican" is reportedly spending $2.4 million to air a new ad attacking Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, who faces a challenge from GOP Gov. Rick Scott. The spot slams Nelson as a career politician who has allegedly collected millions in salary over the years but done little in office.
● MT-Sen: The Club for Growth, which had previously endorsed state Auditor Matt Rosendale in Montana's GOP primary for Senate, is airing a new TV ad on his behalf that calls him a "Trump Republican" because he, like Trump, opposes Obamacare and "isn't in it for the money." Rather confusingly, the Club's press release says it has already spent $550,000 in Montana but also calls this ad "the first phase" of its independent expenditure campaign in the state. FEC reports show only $40,000 in expenditures from the Club so far.
● OH-Sen: A new poll from Baldwin Wallace University shows that a majority of Republican primary voters still haven't made up their minds as to who they'd like to see take on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown this fall. Wealthy Rep. Jim Renacci, who has Trump's backing, leads the way with 25 percent while businessman Mike Gibbons is at 11 and a few minor candidates are in low-single digits, but 55 percent are undecided. Still, it would be a surprise if Renacci didn't emerge as the nominee.
● RI-Sen: A week ago, former Gov. Lincoln Chafee said he'd decide this week whether or not to pursue a kamikaze primary challenge against Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, but now he's saying it'll be "perhaps weeks" before he finally makes up his mind. Go ahead, take as long as you need.
Gubernatorial
● CO-Gov: Former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy is out with her first TV ad of the race, backed by a reported $185,000 buy. It's a pretty clever spot: Saying she's "heard enough from Donald Trump," she went in search of "the places in Colorado where you can get away from Twitter." She then skis, bikes, and hikes through some very scenic spots (that, one can only assume, mercifully lack cellphone reception) while explaining that we need to "protect[] our environment" and "stop the sale of public lands to developers"—like Trump.
● KS-Gov: On Thursday, EMILY's List endorsed state Sen. Laura Kelly in her bid to become governor of Kansas. Kelly faces former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, state House Minority Leader Jim Ward, and former state Secretary of Agriculture Josh Svaty in the Democratic primary, while Republicans are hosting a multi-way nomination battle of their own.
● OH-Gov: With just days to go before Ohio's primaries, Republicans are trying to ratfuck the Democratic contest for governor by helping ex-Rep. Dennis Kucinich, whom they view as an easier general election opponent, beat former consumer watchdog chief Richard Cordray. Citizens Policy Institute, a group run by wealthy GOP donor Tony George, is airing a TV ad that features a semi-hysterical announcer asking, "Why do Republicans like Rich Cordray so much?" as Cordray's face morphs into Trump's. The answer: "He has an A+ rating from the NRA. And he hurt consumers by quitting his job as America's consumer watchdog so Trump could appoint his replacement."
Of course, all of that just delights George, who has given over a quarter million dollars to help the gubernatorial campaign of Republican Mary Taylor. Oddly, though, BuzzFeed says George is also friendly with Kucinich and notes they share a bizarre affinity for Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. (George went so far as to deny reality and claim Assad "would never use chemical weapons on his own people.") George also assured everyone born yesterday that his effort has nothing to do with boosting Kucinich. As for how much he's spending, he'd only say, "Lots."
Fortunately, a new poll from Baldwin Wallace University suggests all this rigmarole might be a bridge too far for George. The survey finds Cordray leading Kucinich 31-15, while 7 percent favor state Sen. Joe Schiavoni and 6 percent back former state Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill. That still leaves a 41 percent plurality that's undecided, but the numbers are similar to a Fallon Research survey from a month ago that had Cordray ahead 28-13.
Meanwhile, among Republicans, state Attorney General Mike DeWine held a wide 52-25 advantage over Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. That also tracks with what other polling has shown.
● WI-Gov: The AP's Scott Bauer reports that GOP Gov. Scott Walker, whose campaign had previously refused to disclose how much money it was putting up behind its initial TV ad buy, is spending $1.5 million. Walker's rotation now includes a second spot that features a family whose son nearly died of opioid addiction praising Walker for his work on the issue.
House
● CA-45: Law professor Katie Porter, one of several Democrats seeking to unseat GOP Rep. Mimi Walters in California's Orange County-based 45th Congressional District, is airing her second TV ad of the race. Calling herself a "consumer protection attorney," Porter says she's "spent the last decade fighting big banks that take advantage of middle-class families, "won $18 million for homeowners," and "helped thousands of families keep their homes." With that profile, she sounds quite a lot like Elizabeth Warren … and in fact, she's been endorsed by Warren, who appeared in Porter's first ad last month, along with California Sen. Kamala Harris.
● CO-05: On Wednesday, the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals declined to overturn a federal district court ruling that had reinstated GOP Rep. Doug Lamborn's name on next month's primary ballot, on the grounds that Colorado's ban on out-of-state petition collectors was unconstitutional. In response, a spokesperson for Colorado's secretary of state declared that Lamborn "is on the ballot," so barring an almost certain-to-fail appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, that's the end of the line.
But there's still the matter of the primary, of course. Lamborn faces state Sen. Owen Hill and 2016 Senate nominee Darryl Glenn, both of whom at least had no trouble making the ballot. That may in fact be the best news of all for Lamborn, though, since there's a good chance that Hill and Glenn could split the anti-incumbent vote and let Lamborn skate to renomination with a plurality. Even more simply, it's possible that with two challengers in the race, it'll be harder for just one to catch fire. And while Lamborn had a ballot-access scare last cycle, too, he still handily won his primary by a 68-32 margin, so for all his stumbles, Republican voters in this very conservative district may still like him.
● FL-15: GOP state Sen. Tom Lee, who'd been considering a bid for Florida's open 15th Congressional District, has opted to stay out. Meanwhile, a new Democrat, attorney Kristen Carlson, has joined the race. Carlson is a former general counsel for the Florida Department of Citrus, though her entry doesn't appear to have generated much media attention beyond a tweet or two.
● NH-01: Democrat Naomi Andrews, who's chief of staff to retiring Rep. Carol Shea-Porter and had reportedly been considering a bid to succeed her boss for a couple of months, has now joined the race. However, her delay has put her well behind the rest of the pack, where the leading candidates have already raised hundreds of thousands of dollars and started building out their campaigns. The one saving grace for Andrew, though, may be New Hampshire's extremely late primary: Despite being famous (or infamous) for its first-in-the-nation presidential primary, the Granite State holds one of the last congressional primaries, on Sept. 11.
● OH-12: Defending Main Street, which had already spent $300,000 supporting state Sen. Troy Balderson in next week's GOP primary for Ohio's 12th Congressional District, has tossed in another $100,000 on a final TV ad. The spot praises Balderson as "one tough conservative" who will do a trillion different conservative things.
● PA-07: The knives are out for John Morganelli, the anti-immigration, pro-Trump district attorney for Northampton County who, it might surprise you, is in fact seeking the Democratic nod in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District. EMILY's List, which has endorsed former Allentown solicitor Susan Wild, and Tom Steyer's NextGen America, which hasn't otherwise taken sides in the May 15 primary, are spending six figures apiece on separate efforts slamming Morganelli.
EMILY is running a TV ad, backed by a $105,000 buy, that goes hard at Morganelli, saying he "opposes a woman's right to choose," "took thousands from an organization tied to an anti-immigrant hate group," (more on that here), and "even suggested he hoped to serve in Trump's administration," which he did in a now-deleted tweet shortly after Trump won in 2016. (EMILY has also spent $80,000 in recent days to run a separate pro-Wild spot.)
NextGen, meanwhile, is putting $100,000 into a digital and mail campaign, though their online ad is just 10 seconds long and simply says, "We can't let this Pro-Trump candidate win our Dem primary. Stop Morganelli. VOTE May 15." As we've noted previously, though, Morganelli benefits from a split on his left between Wild and Pastor Greg Edwards, who has the support of Bernie Sanders. We'll soon see if this late effort is enough to stop him.
● VA-05: With his fate already sealed after journalist Leslie Cockburn won the most delegates at local caucuses, Marine veteran Roger Dean Huffstetler has decided to do the gracious thing and has asked his delegates to vote for Cockburn at this weekend's nominating convention. The only other candidate for the Democratic nomination is attorney Andrew Sneathern, but there's no foreseeable scenario in which Cockburn doesn't walk away with the right to take on GOP Rep. Tom Garrett this November.
● NRCC: The NRCC has added 14 candidates to the second tier of its "Young Guns" program aimed at promoting top contenders (the full list is at the link). Of note: Half of this batch are running in GOP-held districts.
Grab Bag
● Statehouse Action: This Week in Statehouse Action: The Fempire Strikes Back edition is more filled of thrills and adventure than three movies or six movies or I guess it's nine now plus Rogue One and Solo …
Anyway, don't miss a minute of the Democratic recruitment action, strong women-led election narratives, more bad news for Emperor Greitens, Smart Water being poured on chickens, and more!
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