New poll finds large generation and gender gaps in Black support for Kamala Harris

Support for Harris among Gen Z Black men averages 33 points lower than Black men in the Boomer and Gen X cohorts

CHICAGO, IL, UNITED STATES, September 5, 2024 /EINPresswire.com/ -- Overview
High support and mobilization among Black voters have been crucial factors leading to the electoral success of the Democratic Party in recent election cycles. Polls over the past year suggested a significant erosion of support for President Biden’s reelection. Since Vice President Harris replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic Party’s ticket, most polls suggest that Democratic partisans are unifying around her candidacy, but she has not yet replicated the historically high levels of support among Black voters that powered Barack Obama to victory in 2008 and 2012 and Joe Biden in 2020. This poll commissioned by the Alliance for Black Equality, a 527 Super PAC focused on mobilizing young Black swing voters, shows that younger Black voters (especially men) are not rallying to support Harris in the same way that their counterparts in the Gen X and Boomer generations have done over the past month.

Main Findings
We conducted a nationally representative survey of Black Americans asking about their reactions to the DNC and their opinions on Harris and the Presidential election.

• We find that overall Black support for Harris against Trump at 72-17. This is well below the historic highs Black voters delivered to Obama in 2008 and 2012, a difference which could be pivotal in key swing states with large Black populations.
• Similar to previous polls conducted by 2040, we find that Black voters want to hear more on key issues of concern to their communities, including Republican attacks on the correct teaching of American history in schools, gun violence, and race relations generally.
• Among the hard-to-reach voters who report low levels of interest in politics, most did not watch the DNC through any medium. Harris’s support among these respondents is approximately 61 percent, with undecideds outnumbering Trump supporters among the remainder.
• The key finding in the poll is a persistent generation gap. While clear majorities of all age groups within the Black electorate support Harris, and overall Black support has inched up about 3 points in our polling since early June, support is substantially weaker among younger generations. Harris leads Trump 84-7 among Baby Boomers and Generation X, but 61-25 among Gen Z and Millennials. Looking more closely, the generation gap is really a “Gender-Generation Gap:” while young women are only about 15 points less supportive of Harris than their elders, young men are about 27 points less supportive than older men. This is depicted graphically in the following figure:

Younger voters are also about 18 percentage points less likely to say they will definitely vote, which indicates a generational gap in enthusiasm or urgency around the threats to Black communities posed by a second Trump administration. Complementary analyses in our previous polling indicate that young Black men (like young men in other racial and ethnic groups) are not more conservative than their elders—if anything, they are slightly more liberal/progressive. This suggests that they will be persuaded by appeals from Democrats not by tacking to the center, but by contrast appeals that directly address their concerns, which include lack of progress on chronic problems related to race like black-white inequality, gun violence, and civil rights.

About this poll
This analysis is based on a nationally representative poll Black Americans. The poll includes 2930 respondents, August 27-30, 2024. All estimates are weighted on age, sex, income, education, region, and partisanship to estimate a representative sample of Black adult residents of those states. The margin of error for whole-sample point estimates is approximately +/- 2 percent. More detailed cross-tabulations of select segments or other outcome questions are available upon request.

About 2040 Strategy Group
2040 Strategy Group is a boutique consulting firm that provides evidence-based insights to political candidates, progressive advocacy organizations, and private-sector companies. Our team has decades of practical and academic experience and expertise in voting behavior, public policy, and rigorous research methods. We have a particular strength in providing insights about diverse communities and organizations. Our philosophy is rooted in a knowledge that sophisticated short- and long-term strategies will be required to successfully navigate the dramatic social and natural changes that will transform our world between today and 2040. For more information, visit 2040strategygroup.com or email info@2040strategygroup.com

Alvin Tillery
2040 Strategy Group
+1 773-399-0245
info@2040strategygroup.com
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